6 minute read
The bullish stock market seems to be overlooking deteriorating fundamentals.
2 minute read
Robust September jobs report supports view the economy is headed for rotation, not recession.
4 minute read
Interest rates have fallen, but in the liquidity space, the sky has not.
7 minute read
Weakest Back-to-School spending in 15 years.
Federal Reserve ‘recalibrates’ monetary policy.
3 minute read
The data did not support the large cut, but the Fed did not want to seem behind the curve.
The Fed’s half-point rate cut shows it still thinks the economy can avoid a recession.
On the cusp of cutting rates, the only unknowns are the pace and magnitude.
Fed on track to begin cutting rates later this month.
5 minute read
Presidential elections typically gather steam after Labor Day.
Markets are yet again pricing in too many Fed cuts.
Powell adopts dovish tone in his Jackson Hole keynote
Will politicians finally address the ballooning U.S. debt and deficit?
Weak jobs report should prompt Fed to cut rates in September.
The FOMC is back to considering both the labor market and inflation equally as it weighs cuts.
Combination could chill the Fed longer than the consensus believes.
The U.S. economy is slowing and inflation declining, but when will the Fed cut rates?
8 minute read
Headline payroll strength hides weaker details.
A gathering of professionals acknowledged five decades of money funds and sifted through issues in their future.
The presidential debate may be the only one in the election cycle.
Filling up at the pump matters to voters.
Despite dovish inflation data, Fed issues hawkish dots.
Nonfarm payroll strength belies weakness in other areas.
With the Fed on hold and tax collection over, assets resume flowing into liquidity products.
Fed likely to take the summer off.
Baby bust fuels need for immigration and Social Security reform.
Stocks soar as CPI eases despite declining retail sales and confidence.
The U.S. Treasury’s plan to buy back some of its securities should have many benefits.
Other inflation metrics remain sticky and persistent.
Does today’s soft jobs report successfully change the Fed's narrative?
The Fed's game plan hasn't changed, but defeating inflation will take longer than it expected.
Cooling GDP and accelerating inflation problematic for the Fed.
With yields rising and P/Es contracting, we need good first-quarter earnings.
Re-accelerating inflation and strong labor market delay Fed cuts.
Much stronger-than-expected jobs report keeps Fed rate cuts on hold.
The Fed is not feeling pressure to cut rates.
With solid growth, sticky inflation and surging stocks, the Fed is in no hurry to cut rates.
Is the equity market rally inconsistent with Fed policy?
The Fed's dot plot held the intrigue at the FOMC meeting.
Biden left more questions than answers about his economic policies in his SOTU address.
Strong headline gains but weak data underneath.
Magnificent Seven continue to outperform.
Strong reports have swayed expectations for rate cuts rather than the Fed's constant blaring.
Strong wage growth keeps Fed cuts off the bases.
Dismal retail sales in January cap a weak holiday spending season.
Stocks strong start portends a volatile but positive year.
Strong headline gains but a mixed picture beneath the surface.
The Fed removed its tightening bias, opening the door to rate cuts.
Should keep the Fed on the sidelines in March.
Labor market and consumer spending firm, while inflation rises.
Zero for two out of the gate.
Strong job gains and rising wages keep Fed rate cuts on hold.
Three things to watch in 2024.
Inflation grinds lower, the Fed throws in the towel and holiday spending slows.
The Fed now projects rate cuts in 2024, just not as many as the markets have.
Fed rate cuts not coming anytime soon.
But investors aren't going to let you spoil this rally. Next year? We'll see.
As the economy slows across the board, the Fed is done hiking rates.
Market momentum & fundamentals are keeping the rally going.
The markets have swung too far by forecasting multiple Fed rate cuts in 2024.
12 minute read
Expecting market to broaden out as we advance to 5,000 on the S&P.
We believe next year could present compelling opportunities within high yield.
Thanksgiving brings increased travel, falling prices and rallying financial markets.
The economy and markets can't take on much more debt without getting sick.
Despite Biden’s terrible polling, Democrats performed well in off-year elections, which should worry the GOP.
Markets are serving up rallies for the holidays.
Reasons to believe the equity rally has legs.
Financial markets rally on perceived Fed pause.
With earnings and economic news not as bad as feared, markets can grind higher into year-end.
Weak jobs report pushes Fed to sidelines.
Will the stock and bond rallies have staying power?
The Fed wants more time and data as it looks to December's meeting.
Will it keep the Fed in play?
Geopolitics are trumping the economy and earnings among investor worries.
9 minute read
Though it is also very dark in the middle of the night.
Back-to-School sales were soft, but consumers are spending elsewhere.
A surprisingly strong economy could mean higher for longer, longer
Employment, inflation and bonds combine for twists and turns for the journey of Fed policy.
It's not just the pilot who is confused as markets wrestle with yields.
At the end of the day, it'll be a gift for competitors.
The new regulations for money funds don't change their value proposition.
Might a summer storm lie ahead for investors?
MBS issued by U.S. housing agencies could have advantages for investors if the economy slows.
Could energy buck conventional wisdom?
If it is, bubbles can last a long time.
Weakening confidence should give Fed the slowdown it wanted.
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