Insights

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June 7 2023
International/Global .
Article

3 minute read

Oh, Mexico!
June 7 2023

Our southern neighbor is firing on all cylinders.

June 2 2023
Markets/Economy .
Article

7 minute read

Tale of two labor markets
June 2 2023

A hot headline increase of 339,000 jobs in May but colder details put Fed in wait-and-see mode.

June 2 2023
Equity .
Article

8 minute read

99th percentile
June 2 2023

A very narrow market trading at extremes makes for discomfort.

June 1 2023
Markets/Economy .
Article

3 minute read

The coming deluge
June 1 2023

Following the official suspension of the federal debt limit, expect the U.S. Treasury to issue a massive amount of securities.

May 30 2023
Equity .
Article

8 minute read

Funemployment and sacrifice
May 26 2023

A strong consumer and robust labor market aren't so fun for the Fed.

May 23 2023
Markets/Economy .
Article

6 minute read

On the one hand...
May 23 2023

Inconsistent economic reports cloud the path of U.S. growth.

May 19 2023
Active Management .
Article

4 minute read

Look beyond the headline
May 19 2023

The bump in April retail sales belies a deceleration of consumer spending.

May 25 2023
Equity .
Article

7 minute read

'The World According to GARP'
May 19 2023

Might stocks offering 'growth at reasonable prices' provide refuge?

May 25 2023
Fixed Income .
Article

2 minute read

Bonds are (still) back
May 18 2023

And the case for bond returns is getting stronger.

May 25 2023
Equity .
Article

8 minute read

Please Sir! Can we just get on with the ‘Big R’ Recession?


May 16 2023

Investors grow impatient waiting for the big downturn that may never fully come.

May 12 2023
Markets/Economy .
Article

6 minute read

The pause that refreshes
May 12 2023

The Fed may be done hiking, but its subsequent pause could last awhile.

May 12 2023
Equity .
Article

8 minute read

The key is to figure out what regime we're in
May 12 2023

That could determine if above- or below-average historical returns are likely.

May 5 2023
Markets/Economy .
Article

7 minute read

'Sizzling' labor market report less impressive than it seems
May 5 2023

Barring the emergence of more bullish data, we expect the Fed to pause rate hikes this year.

May 30 2023
Fixed Income .
Article

3 minute read

EM isn't a blanket growth story
May 4 2023

Opportunities as varied as countries that fall under the emerging markets umbrella.

May 4 2023
Equity .
Article

6 minute read

'Not worried, but ...'
May 4 2023

Looming risks make it hard to assess where markets go next.

May 3 2023
Monetary Policy .
Article

2 minute read

Could the latest be the last?
May 3 2023

The Fed raised rates again, but hinted it soon might be time to take a breather.

May 4 2023
Markets/Economy .
Article

4 minute read

Capital inflows
May 1 2023

What's behind the substantial rise in assets of money market vehicles?

April 28 2023
Markets/Economy .
Article

6 minute read

Worst of all worlds
April 28 2023

GDP growth slows, but inflation remains elevated

May 16 2023
Markets/Economy .
Article

5 minute read

Bulls running out of air; bears running out of time
April 28 2023

With volatile markets ahead, stocks enter a period of limbo.

May 10 2023
Equity .
Article

8 minute read

Crosscurrents
April 28 2023

With so many mixed messages, no wonder investors are confused.

April 28 2023
Markets/Economy .
Podcast

43 minute listen

Putting the inflation genie into its lamp


April 26 2023

Stubborn inflation, strong consumption data and a robust labor market are clouding the economy’s path.

April 28 2023
Markets/Economy .
Article

4 minute read

Debt-ceiling drama
April 21 2023

Is the debate much ado about nothing or a slow-moving train wreck?

April 25 2023
Equity .
Article

8 minute read

Slowflation
April 21 2023

Slower growth and stubborn inflation argue for patience and selectivity.

April 28 2023
Markets/Economy .
Article

7 minute read

High-water mark
April 14 2023

We see GDP growth slowing over the balance of 2023.

April 28 2023
Equity .
Article

7 minute read

Liquidity is shrinking
April 14 2023

Perils lurk but so does the potential for upside surprises.

May 30 2023
Fixed Income .
Article

5 minute read

Picking our spots
April 14 2023

Volatile markets can offer opportunities.

April 28 2023
Markets/Economy .
Article

7 minute read

Inflection point?
April 7 2023

Fed rate hikes finally may be starting to bite.

April 28 2023
Equity .
Article

8 minute read

'That's stupid and I'm not doing that ...'
April 6 2023

Mounting clues that the economy has reached a turning point.

April 28 2023
Equity .
Article

7 minute read

The beginning of the end, or the end of the beginning?
April 6 2023

Maintaining cautiously constructive stance amid confusing outlook.

April 28 2023
Liquidity .
Article

3 minute read

One Fed, two jobs
April 3 2023

The Federal Reserve’s dual function as regulator and policy-setter has been on display.

April 28 2023
Markets/Economy .
Article

5 minute read

Do fundamentals still matter?
March 31 2023

Should investors buy the dips or sell the rips as we approach earnings season?

April 28 2023
Markets/Economy .
Article

7 minute read

'How long can this keep going on?'
March 31 2023

For as long as the economy is stronger for longer.

April 28 2023
Equity .
Article

6 minute read

A rock and a hard place
March 24 2023

Will the Federal Reserve pivot from its fight against inflation?

May 30 2023
Equity .
Article

7 minute read

'We stay in our lane'
March 24 2023

Not all regional banks are caught up in the turmoil. 

April 28 2023
Monetary Policy .
Article

3 minute read

Balancing act
March 22 2023

Fed Chair Powell made the case for another quarter-point hike amid the banking turmoil.

April 28 2023
Markets/Economy .
Article

6 minute read

Is real estate the frog in the pot?
March 21 2023

Simmering post-pandemic issues are raising the temperature.

April 28 2023
Equity .
Article

8 minute read

Only when the tide goes out ...
March 20 2023

Rapid rate increases exposing issues that were hidden when rates were low.

April 28 2023
Markets/Economy .
Article

6 minute read

Reversal of fortunes
March 17 2023

Silicon Valley Bank's 'Perfect Storm' unlikely to deter Fed.

April 28 2023
Fixed Income .
Article

3 minute read

This is not 2008!

March 15 2023

But banking issues brought to the fore this week are discomforting.

April 28 2023
Liquidity .
Article

6 minute read

Next steps
March 14 2023

The Fed’s response to the collapse of SVB puts pressure on the Treasury and the FOMC decision next week.

May 30 2023
Equity .
Article

6 minute read

It's back to the middle syllable of e-CON-omy
March 13 2023

Weakening confidence should give Fed the slowdown it wanted.

April 28 2023
Equity .
Article

7 minute read

Drumbeat
March 10 2023

The beats (hawkish Fed, strong jobs, surprise bank failure) keep coming.

April 28 2023
Markets/Economy .
Article

2 minute read

Robust jobs report puts air under wings of Fed hawks
March 10 2023

The still hot labor market all but ensures the Federal Reserve stays aggressive.

May 30 2023
Equity .
Article

12 minute read

10 things that are 'different this time'
March 10 2023

Standard models and frameworks are less useful in rocky landings.

April 28 2023
Equity .
Article

7 minute read

Mr. and Mrs. Federated Hermes
March 3 2023

As Linda discusses inflationary '70s, a guest wonders if the Mister is with her.

April 28 2023
Markets/Economy .
Article

7 minute read

Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Market
March 3 2023

U.S. equity and fixed-income markets are pointing in different directions.

April 28 2023
Liquidity .
Article

4 minute read

Coming to terms
March 1 2023

Investors have begrudgingly capitulated to a still-hawkish Fed.

April 28 2023
Markets/Economy .
Article

6 minute read

No end in sight
February 24 2023

The tragic Russia/Ukraine war could keep energy prices and inflation elevated.

April 28 2023
Equity .
Article

7 minute read

Fifteen thousand dollars for a divorce? LOL!
February 24 2023

As long as Americans keep spending, higher for longer may rule the day.

April 28 2023
International/Global .
Article

5 minute read

More of the same
February 24 2023

The global economic picture is setting up to look a lot like last year's.

May 30 2023
Equity .
Article

7 minute read

Ukraine a year later: The war and markets still enduring a rocky landing
February 23 2023

The only good news is both seem much closer to a better future.

April 28 2023
International/Global .
Article

5 minute read

Why the EM run has legs
February 22 2023

It starts with China. Other forces also are at work.

April 28 2023
Equity .
Article

5 minute read

Retail sales rebound strongly in January
February 17 2023

Combined with persistent inflation, Fed likely to remain vigilant.

April 28 2023
Equity .
Article

7 minute read

They called 'peak inflation' 3 times in the '70s. Just saying.
February 17 2023

Inflation, consumer strength move bonds closer to the Fed. Stocks still keeping some distance.

April 28 2023
Markets/Economy .
Article

6 minute read

A barbell year
February 9 2023

Fundamentals suggest stocks could correct in the coming months before rallying into year-end.

April 28 2023
Fixed Income .
Article

3 minute read

It's an 'on the one hand, on the other' economy
February 8 2023

And that's creating challenges for fixed-income positioning.

April 28 2023
Equity .
Article

5 minute read

'Goldilocks' is a bit generous
February 7 2023

We're probably not yet at a "just right" stage for stocks, especially of the growth variety.

April 28 2023
Markets/Economy .
Article

7 minute read

Blowout jobs report
February 6 2023

The surge of hires in January likely keeps the Fed in hawk mode.

April 28 2023
Equity .
Article

7 minute read

Mixed messages
February 3 2023

Bulls looking past the crosscurrents … for now.

May 30 2023
Liquidity .
Article

3 minute read

Yield curveball
February 2 2023

The market is dismissing the Fed's determination to defeat inflation.

April 28 2023
Markets/Economy .
Article

6 minute read

Inventory surge boosts fourth-quarter GDP
January 27 2023

Decent headline gross domestic product growth belies weakness in several core components.

April 28 2023
Equity .
Article

8 minute read

There's no clear path
January 27 2023

Can the equity rally survive deteriorating fundamentals, a tight-as-a-drum job market and inverted yield curve?

April 28 2023
Fixed Income .
Article

3 minute read

Be on the lookout
January 26 2023

An improved high-yield asset class might not flash the same signs for reentry as in past economic downturns.

January 20 2023
2023 Outlook .
Podcast Themes, forecasts and pockets of value


January 20 2023

Persistent inflation and the Fed’s efforts to fight it will lead to a mild recession, but investors can find opportunities across equity, fixed income and cash.

April 28 2023
Politics .
Article

2 minute read

Dysfunction that knows no limits
January 20 2023

Rancor aside, with ‘extraordinary measures’ the debate over the U.S. debt limit has time to be resolved.

April 28 2023
Equity .
Article

8 minute read

This is a marathon
January 20 2023

In volatile markets, stock picking and picking your spots may offer investors the best options for returns.

January 17 2023
Markets/Economy .
Article Best case scenario
January 17 2023

Inflation cooling but labor market remains healthy.

April 28 2023
2023 Outlook .
Article

5 minute read

The waiting game
January 17 2023

2022 was all about rates; this year is more nuanced.

April 28 2023
2023 Outlook .
Article

7 minute read

What happened? What's going to happen?
January 12 2023

2022 was tough. 2023 will have its challenges but be perched for opportunities.

April 28 2023
Markets/Economy .
Article

5 minute read

Stock market seasonals flashing green
January 11 2023

Two market indicators suggest equities could enjoy a better year. 

April 28 2023
2023 Outlook .
Article

7 minute read

The other side of zero
January 11 2023

Modestly more constructive on stocks as rocky landing approaches final phase.

January 11 2023
2023 Outlook .
Article Opportunities in the aftermath
January 11 2023

Three things to watch in 2023.

April 28 2023
Equity .
Article

8 minute read

1.4 trillion dollars is a lot!
January 6 2023

A flush consumer could make for a slow-cession instead of a recession.

January 6 2023
Equity .
Podcast Small but mighty


January 6 2023

Opportunities can be found in small-cap markets.

April 28 2023
Markets/Economy .
Article

6 minute read

Goldilocks jobs report
January 6 2023

But the ISM services decline was a bigger story.

January 20 2023
2023 Outlook .
Article Spring is coming (but may be late)
January 5 2023

Three things to watch in 2023.

January 17 2023
2023 Outlook .
Article Potholes remain, but bonds headed in right direction
January 5 2023

Three things to watch in 2023.

January 11 2023
2023 Outlook .
Article Sweet spot
December 29 2022

Three things to watch in 2023.

April 28 2023
2023 Outlook .
Article

8 minute read

Might 3% become the new 2%?
December 29 2022

Looks like 3 decades of disinflation are coming to an end.

December 22 2022
2023 Outlook .
Article A gloomy winter
December 29 2022

Three things to watch in 2023.

December 28 2022
2023 Outlook .
Article Bonds are back
December 28 2022

Three things to watch in 2023.

April 28 2023
2023 Outlook .
Article

4 minute read

Caught between a rock and a hard place
December 19 2022

An earnings and Fed Catch-22 could keep S&P range-bound for coming months.

December 15 2022
Markets/Economy .
Article Holiday spending slows
December 15 2022

Consumers are showing restraint amid still-high inflation.

December 15 2022
Monetary Policy .
Article Disconnect
December 14 2022

The Fed pushes back against market expectations.

April 28 2023
2023 Outlook .
Article

2 minute read

Nothing lasts forever
December 13 2022

Three things to watch in 2023.

December 8 2022
Equity .
Article No more glorious place than Phoenix this time of year
December 8 2022

A quick visit lifted spirits. Will Santa do the same for the markets?

April 28 2023
Markets/Economy .
Podcast

45 minute listen

Is recession around the corner?
December 7 2022

Silvia Dall’Angelo, Donald Ellenberger and Steve Chiavarone discuss global inflation and whether the markets have already priced in a recession. 

December 8 2022
Monetary Policy .
Article Fed is getting what it wants for the holidays
December 6 2022

The U.S. economy is slowing across the board.

December 2 2022
Markets/Economy .
Article Lingering labor market strength
December 2 2022

The Fed can't like the strong job growth and surge in wages in November.

December 2 2022
Equity .
Article If you think that's Jerome playing Santa Claus ...
December 2 2022

You have to ask: is he here to hurt or help?

November 30 2022
Monetary Policy .
Article Just the facts
December 1 2022

FOMC voters must stick to the data to make their next decision on rates.

November 30 2022
Markets/Economy .
Article The case for munis
November 30 2022

Municipal securities have much to offer if the economy slows.

December 21 2022
Equity .
Article 'To V or not to V is NOT the question'
November 29 2022

2023 outlook to us looks like more of the same as "rocky landing" proceeds.

November 25 2022
Markets/Economy .
Article We need a little Thanksgiving
November 23 2022

But it's a lot more expensive this year.

December 13 2022
Equity .
Article Can you buy Junior too many presents?
November 23 2022

Not until the stimulus stockpile is gone. But what then?

November 21 2022
Equity .
Article Time to think small?
November 22 2022

Perhaps. But the focus should be on quality.

November 18 2022
Markets/Economy .
Article Winter is coming
November 18 2022

Mix shift in retail spending points to slower economic growth.

November 23 2022
Equity .
Article Not to be a grinch
November 18 2022

Many reasons for a rally but don't expect it to last.

November 29 2022
Markets/Economy .
Article Resist the temptation
November 17 2022

Wide corporate bond spreads are enticing, but the time to add to credit sectors hasn't come yet.

November 21 2022
Markets/Economy .
Article Red ripple
November 11 2022

Republicans fail to achieve expected midterm election gains.

November 16 2022
Equity .
Article The extremes lost Tuesday night
November 11 2022

Maybe everyone, including markets, could use a little boring.

November 29 2022
International/Global .
Article Is China investable?
November 7 2022

Yes, but recent actions have raised the risk.

November 7 2022
Markets/Economy .
Article October jobs report a mixed bag
November 7 2022

Solid week of employment data keeps Fed aggressive.

November 11 2022
Equity .
Article Last year's transitory is this year's pivot
November 4 2022

And it doesn't look like the Fed is planning one anytime soon.

November 1 2022
Monetary Policy .
Article Not so fast
November 2 2022

Fed Chair Powell indicates the pace of hikes is not as crucial as arriving at the right place.

May 30 2023
Equity .
Article Even rocky landings can have big bounces
November 1 2022

Remaining defensive as 2023 consensus on earnings and Fed remains too optimistic.

November 8 2022
Monetary Policy .
Article The good old days
October 31 2022

Money market yields have returned to pre-GFC levels.

October 31 2022
Markets/Economy .
Article Calm before the storm
October 31 2022

Positive Q3 GDP growth provides a respite.

October 28 2022
Equity .
Article Overstand, not understand
October 28 2022

Consider the big picture when assessing markets ... and life.

October 21 2022
Markets/Economy .
Article Bird of prey
October 21 2022

Hawkish Fed prompts us to lower our GDP growth estimates.

October 26 2022
Equity .
Article Markets like gridlock
October 21 2022

And they may get it as midterms seem to be trending the GOP's way.

October 18 2022
Fixed Income .
Article Too soon to add to high yield
October 18 2022

As they bide their time, investors should focus on strengthening portfolios.

October 17 2022
Markets/Economy .
Article Hope is not a process
October 17 2022

Investors bracing for a challenging third-quarter earnings season.

October 18 2022
Equity .
Article Time heals all wounds
October 14 2022

This market has been in a bad place for some time.

November 1 2022
Fixed Income .
Article Bond clouds starting to part
October 12 2022

With peak yields in sight, better times may be too.

May 30 2023
Equity .
Article Straight Fs
October 11 2022

Everything we thought might go wrong at start of the year, has.

October 11 2022
Markets/Economy .
Article Ghosts and shadows
October 7 2022

Whether or not this bear market survives October, investors will face an unnerving environment.

October 7 2022
Equity .
Article Ten dollars for a dozen eggs
October 7 2022

The sun's not the only thing that's hot in Hawaii these days.

October 3 2022
Equity .
Article Will the economy drive midterm elections?
October 3 2022

Or will social policy issues keep it close?

October 24 2022
Monetary Policy .
Article D.I.Y.
October 3 2022

Fed projections are less useful these days.

October 3 2022
Equity .
Article Trouble in paradise
September 30 2022

Disasters all over have markets on edge.

September 23 2022
Equity .
Article Ditto
September 23 2022

Fed Chair Powell reiterates hawkish Jackson Hole message.

November 8 2022
Equity .
Article There's no place like home
September 23 2022

Investors seeking shelter from stormy markets.

September 19 2022
Markets/Economy .
Article Consumer spending slows
September 19 2022

Control results weak, but school shopping solid.

October 11 2022
Equity .
Article The anvil that could be coming
September 16 2022

How much corporate earnings fall could determine where the market bottoms.

September 16 2022
Equity .
Article 70 is the new 50
September 16 2022

Amid this week's chaos, good vibes in visits to Atlanta and Nashville. 

October 11 2022
Markets/Economy .
Article Don't fight this Fed
September 12 2022

Higher, sooner and longer for these hawkish policymakers.

September 13 2022
Equity .
Article She rocked those hats!
September 9 2022

Queen Elizabeth II was a constant in a world of turmoil. 

September 7 2022
Equity .
Article Will biotech's bounce last?
September 7 2022

There are reasons to think it might.

September 2 2022
Equity .
Article A slower pace
September 2 2022

Perhaps Wall Street can take a cue from Main Street and just chill.

September 2 2022
Markets/Economy .
Article Mixed picture for August employment
September 2 2022

Relatively healthy jobs report keeps Fed hiking rates.

September 16 2022
International/Global .
Article Why country matters
September 1 2022

Global investment decisions often start at the top.

October 3 2022
Liquidity .
Article The place to be
September 1 2022

 Cash has become a compelling asset class.

August 26 2022
Monetary Policy .
Article Hawkish Powell roils markets
August 26 2022

Fed Chair uses Jackson Hole keynote to reset investor expectations. 

August 26 2022
Equity .
Article 'Now I understand why Dad was always in a bad mood'
August 26 2022

'70s stagflation made many people grumpy, which is why no one wants a repeat.

September 6 2022
Equity .
Article Summer's almost over
August 22 2022

And with it, the rally in stocks is likely ending, too.

August 19 2022
Equity .
Article Chill in 'Emerald City'
August 19 2022

Bears and bulls facing off on what the Fed may do.

August 22 2022
Politics .
Article What will voters think of the Inflation Reduction Act?
August 16 2022

Their answers could play a big role in midterm elections.

August 16 2022
Equity .
Article You've got to ask yourself one question
August 12 2022

A lot is riding on a Fed pivot.

December 6 2022
Markets/Economy .
Article Political hot potato
August 9 2022

What will the White House do with student debt?

August 5 2022
Markets/Economy .
Article Good news is bad news
August 5 2022

Hot July jobs report keeps Fed on warpath against inflation.

September 6 2022
Inflation .
Article Against the wind
August 5 2022

Continuing rally hopes face structural inflation headwinds.

August 4 2022
Equity .
Podcast Revenge of the boring


August 4 2022

Seeking opportunities amid volatility.

September 1 2022
Liquidity .
Article See you in September
August 1 2022

Next month will mark a half-year of hikes, time enough to evaluate their impact.

November 8 2022
Markets/Economy .
Article We're not in a recession...yet
July 29 2022

But high inflation and Fed tightening are taking us closer.

November 8 2022
Equity .
Article Wanna change the subject?
July 29 2022

Uncertainties casting doubt on the rally.

July 27 2022
Monetary Policy .
Article Another big swing
July 27 2022

The Fed raises interest rates by 0.75% for the second month in a row.

October 20 2022
Markets/Economy .
Article U.S. electric vehicle progress: more tortoise than hare?
July 25 2022

Battery technology, charging stations, safety and costs among key issues.

July 29 2022
Equity .
Article Thor versus Loki
July 22 2022

It's inflation versus recession with the Fed in the starring role.

July 22 2022
Monetary Policy .
Article Hawkish Fed argues for keeping defense on the field
July 21 2022

Rising recession risk favors defensive dividend stocks, cash and Treasuries.

July 15 2022
Markets/Economy .
Article Sizzling
July 15 2022

Hot inflation, stagflation concerns, recession fears and a hawkish Fed.

July 14 2022
Equity .
Podcast 40 years on Wall Street

July 14 2022

Investment and life lessons from Stephen Auth.

August 22 2022
Fixed Income .
Article Stay tuned, stay nimble
July 14 2022

After years of playing defense, it's time to think offense.

July 29 2022
Equity .
Article 'I mean, it's one banana. What could it cost? Ten dollars?'
July 14 2022

Inflation and recession face off as the market weighs which is worse.

July 11 2022
Markets/Economy .
Article June jobs report a mixed bag
July 8 2022

Fed on track for a 0.75% hike in late July.

July 8 2022
Equity .
Article Malaise
July 8 2022

Markets might be setting up for '70s' era modest returns.

July 1 2022
Markets/Economy .
Article Worst equity returns in half a century
July 1 2022

And the storm might not be over.

July 1 2022
Equity .
Article The summer of our discontent
July 1 2022

Could it be setting investors up for a glorious winter?

July 1 2022
Liquidity .
Article Perpetual motion
July 1 2022

The Fed’s willingness to shift on volatile data makes rate expectations difficult.

August 1 2022
Equity .
Article Rocky landings easier to handle from a neutral corner
June 28 2022

Selling equities into rally as outlook for 'Rocky Landing' grows more likely.

July 14 2022
International/Global .
Article Look to the East
June 28 2022

Our international team sees opportunity in China, Asia.

October 20 2022
Markets/Economy .
Article Collateral damage
June 24 2022

Fed policy shift should cool the housing market.

June 23 2022
Inflation .
Article There will be pain
June 22 2022

Unfortunately for workers, wage inflation at heart of Fed tightening.

June 17 2022
Markets/Economy .
Article Power up
June 17 2022

Nuclear could see a resurgence as world turns to cleaner energy.

October 20 2022
Equity .
Article This too shall pass
June 17 2022

Markets are adjusting to the new Fed regime.

June 15 2022
Monetary Policy .
Article Since you offered
June 15 2022

The market’s late shift in expectations gave the Fed the opportunity for a 0.75% hike.

June 28 2022
Equity .
Article Risk-reward on stocks edging into balance
June 14 2022

Nearing level to leg back in but staying defensive as Fed attempts 'rocky landing.'

June 10 2022
Markets/Economy .
Article Passing the buck on inflation
June 10 2022

Consumer Price Index surges to a new 40-year high.

June 10 2022
Equity .
Article Genteel and a survivor
June 10 2022

Helpful qualities in a market that's distributing so much pain.

June 10 2022
Active Management .
Article Defense still rules in this market
June 10 2022

Fed should give investors no reason to stray from short-duration, value strategies.

December 17 2021
Equity .
Article There's a reason it's called the 'Wall of Worry'
November 22 2021

Market risks stay skewed to upside but inflation and possible policy errors lurk.