3 minute read
Our southern neighbor is firing on all cylinders.
7 minute read
A hot headline increase of 339,000 jobs in May but colder details put Fed in wait-and-see mode.
8 minute read
A very narrow market trading at extremes makes for discomfort.
Following the official suspension of the federal debt limit, expect the U.S. Treasury to issue a massive amount of securities.
A strong consumer and robust labor market aren't so fun for the Fed.
6 minute read
Inconsistent economic reports cloud the path of U.S. growth.
4 minute read
The bump in April retail sales belies a deceleration of consumer spending.
Might stocks offering 'growth at reasonable prices' provide refuge?
2 minute read
And the case for bond returns is getting stronger.
Investors grow impatient waiting for the big downturn that may never fully come.
The Fed may be done hiking, but its subsequent pause could last awhile.
That could determine if above- or below-average historical returns are likely.
Barring the emergence of more bullish data, we expect the Fed to pause rate hikes this year.
Opportunities as varied as countries that fall under the emerging markets umbrella.
Looming risks make it hard to assess where markets go next.
The Fed raised rates again, but hinted it soon might be time to take a breather.
What's behind the substantial rise in assets of money market vehicles?
GDP growth slows, but inflation remains elevated
5 minute read
With volatile markets ahead, stocks enter a period of limbo.
With so many mixed messages, no wonder investors are confused.
43 minute listen
Stubborn inflation, strong consumption data and a robust labor market are clouding the economy’s path.
Is the debate much ado about nothing or a slow-moving train wreck?
Slower growth and stubborn inflation argue for patience and selectivity.
We see GDP growth slowing over the balance of 2023.
Perils lurk but so does the potential for upside surprises.
Volatile markets can offer opportunities.
Fed rate hikes finally may be starting to bite.
Mounting clues that the economy has reached a turning point.
Maintaining cautiously constructive stance amid confusing outlook.
The Federal Reserve’s dual function as regulator and policy-setter has been on display.
Should investors buy the dips or sell the rips as we approach earnings season?
For as long as the economy is stronger for longer.
Will the Federal Reserve pivot from its fight against inflation?
Not all regional banks are caught up in the turmoil.
Fed Chair Powell made the case for another quarter-point hike amid the banking turmoil.
Simmering post-pandemic issues are raising the temperature.
Rapid rate increases exposing issues that were hidden when rates were low.
Silicon Valley Bank's 'Perfect Storm' unlikely to deter Fed.
But banking issues brought to the fore this week are discomforting.
The Fed’s response to the collapse of SVB puts pressure on the Treasury and the FOMC decision next week.
Weakening confidence should give Fed the slowdown it wanted.
The beats (hawkish Fed, strong jobs, surprise bank failure) keep coming.
The still hot labor market all but ensures the Federal Reserve stays aggressive.
12 minute read
Standard models and frameworks are less useful in rocky landings.
As Linda discusses inflationary '70s, a guest wonders if the Mister is with her.
U.S. equity and fixed-income markets are pointing in different directions.
Investors have begrudgingly capitulated to a still-hawkish Fed.
The tragic Russia/Ukraine war could keep energy prices and inflation elevated.
As long as Americans keep spending, higher for longer may rule the day.
The global economic picture is setting up to look a lot like last year's.
The only good news is both seem much closer to a better future.
It starts with China. Other forces also are at work.
Combined with persistent inflation, Fed likely to remain vigilant.
Inflation, consumer strength move bonds closer to the Fed. Stocks still keeping some distance.
Fundamentals suggest stocks could correct in the coming months before rallying into year-end.
And that's creating challenges for fixed-income positioning.
We're probably not yet at a "just right" stage for stocks, especially of the growth variety.
The surge of hires in January likely keeps the Fed in hawk mode.
Bulls looking past the crosscurrents … for now.
The market is dismissing the Fed's determination to defeat inflation.
Decent headline gross domestic product growth belies weakness in several core components.
Can the equity rally survive deteriorating fundamentals, a tight-as-a-drum job market and inverted yield curve?
An improved high-yield asset class might not flash the same signs for reentry as in past economic downturns.
Persistent inflation and the Fed’s efforts to fight it will lead to a mild recession, but investors can find opportunities across equity, fixed income and cash.
Rancor aside, with ‘extraordinary measures’ the debate over the U.S. debt limit has time to be resolved.
In volatile markets, stock picking and picking your spots may offer investors the best options for returns.
Inflation cooling but labor market remains healthy.
2022 was all about rates; this year is more nuanced.
2022 was tough. 2023 will have its challenges but be perched for opportunities.
Two market indicators suggest equities could enjoy a better year.
Modestly more constructive on stocks as rocky landing approaches final phase.
Three things to watch in 2023.
A flush consumer could make for a slow-cession instead of a recession.
Opportunities can be found in small-cap markets.
But the ISM services decline was a bigger story.
Looks like 3 decades of disinflation are coming to an end.
An earnings and Fed Catch-22 could keep S&P range-bound for coming months.
Consumers are showing restraint amid still-high inflation.
The Fed pushes back against market expectations.
A quick visit lifted spirits. Will Santa do the same for the markets?
45 minute listen
Silvia Dall’Angelo, Donald Ellenberger and Steve Chiavarone discuss global inflation and whether the markets have already priced in a recession.
The U.S. economy is slowing across the board.
The Fed can't like the strong job growth and surge in wages in November.
You have to ask: is he here to hurt or help?
FOMC voters must stick to the data to make their next decision on rates.
Municipal securities have much to offer if the economy slows.
2023 outlook to us looks like more of the same as "rocky landing" proceeds.
But it's a lot more expensive this year.
Not until the stimulus stockpile is gone. But what then?
Perhaps. But the focus should be on quality.
Mix shift in retail spending points to slower economic growth.
Many reasons for a rally but don't expect it to last.
Wide corporate bond spreads are enticing, but the time to add to credit sectors hasn't come yet.
Republicans fail to achieve expected midterm election gains.
Maybe everyone, including markets, could use a little boring.
Yes, but recent actions have raised the risk.
Solid week of employment data keeps Fed aggressive.
And it doesn't look like the Fed is planning one anytime soon.
Fed Chair Powell indicates the pace of hikes is not as crucial as arriving at the right place.
Remaining defensive as 2023 consensus on earnings and Fed remains too optimistic.
Money market yields have returned to pre-GFC levels.
Positive Q3 GDP growth provides a respite.
Consider the big picture when assessing markets ... and life.
Hawkish Fed prompts us to lower our GDP growth estimates.
And they may get it as midterms seem to be trending the GOP's way.
As they bide their time, investors should focus on strengthening portfolios.
Investors bracing for a challenging third-quarter earnings season.
This market has been in a bad place for some time.
With peak yields in sight, better times may be too.
Everything we thought might go wrong at start of the year, has.
Whether or not this bear market survives October, investors will face an unnerving environment.
The sun's not the only thing that's hot in Hawaii these days.
Or will social policy issues keep it close?
Fed projections are less useful these days.
Disasters all over have markets on edge.
Fed Chair Powell reiterates hawkish Jackson Hole message.
Investors seeking shelter from stormy markets.
Control results weak, but school shopping solid.
How much corporate earnings fall could determine where the market bottoms.
Amid this week's chaos, good vibes in visits to Atlanta and Nashville.
Higher, sooner and longer for these hawkish policymakers.
Queen Elizabeth II was a constant in a world of turmoil.
There are reasons to think it might.
Perhaps Wall Street can take a cue from Main Street and just chill.
Relatively healthy jobs report keeps Fed hiking rates.
Global investment decisions often start at the top.
Cash has become a compelling asset class.
Fed Chair uses Jackson Hole keynote to reset investor expectations.
'70s stagflation made many people grumpy, which is why no one wants a repeat.
And with it, the rally in stocks is likely ending, too.
Bears and bulls facing off on what the Fed may do.
Their answers could play a big role in midterm elections.
A lot is riding on a Fed pivot.
What will the White House do with student debt?
Hot July jobs report keeps Fed on warpath against inflation.
Continuing rally hopes face structural inflation headwinds.
Seeking opportunities amid volatility.
Next month will mark a half-year of hikes, time enough to evaluate their impact.
But high inflation and Fed tightening are taking us closer.
Uncertainties casting doubt on the rally.
The Fed raises interest rates by 0.75% for the second month in a row.
Battery technology, charging stations, safety and costs among key issues.
It's inflation versus recession with the Fed in the starring role.
Rising recession risk favors defensive dividend stocks, cash and Treasuries.
Hot inflation, stagflation concerns, recession fears and a hawkish Fed.
Investment and life lessons from Stephen Auth.
After years of playing defense, it's time to think offense.
Inflation and recession face off as the market weighs which is worse.
Fed on track for a 0.75% hike in late July.
Markets might be setting up for '70s' era modest returns.
And the storm might not be over.
Could it be setting investors up for a glorious winter?
The Fed’s willingness to shift on volatile data makes rate expectations difficult.
Selling equities into rally as outlook for 'Rocky Landing' grows more likely.
Our international team sees opportunity in China, Asia.
Fed policy shift should cool the housing market.
Unfortunately for workers, wage inflation at heart of Fed tightening.
Nuclear could see a resurgence as world turns to cleaner energy.
Markets are adjusting to the new Fed regime.
The market’s late shift in expectations gave the Fed the opportunity for a 0.75% hike.
Nearing level to leg back in but staying defensive as Fed attempts 'rocky landing.'
Consumer Price Index surges to a new 40-year high.
Helpful qualities in a market that's distributing so much pain.
Fed should give investors no reason to stray from short-duration, value strategies.
Market risks stay skewed to upside but inflation and possible policy errors lurk.