6 minute read
The U.S. economy is slowing and inflation declining, but when will the Fed cut rates?
8 minute read
Headline payroll strength hides weaker details.
4 minute read
A gathering of professionals acknowledged five decades of money funds and sifted through issues in their future.
5 minute read
The presidential debate may be the only one in the election cycle.
Filling up at the pump matters to voters.
7 minute read
Despite dovish inflation data, Fed issues hawkish dots.
Nonfarm payroll strength belies weakness in other areas.
With the Fed on hold and tax collection over, assets resume flowing into liquidity products.
Fed likely to take the summer off.
Baby bust fuels need for immigration and Social Security reform.
Stocks soar as CPI eases despite declining retail sales and confidence.
3 minute read
The U.S. Treasury’s plan to buy back some of its securities should have many benefits.
Other inflation metrics remain sticky and persistent.
Does today’s soft jobs report successfully change the Fed's narrative?
The Fed's game plan hasn't changed, but defeating inflation will take longer than it expected.
Cooling GDP and accelerating inflation problematic for the Fed.
With yields rising and P/Es contracting, we need good first-quarter earnings.
Re-accelerating inflation and strong labor market delay Fed cuts.
Much stronger-than-expected jobs report keeps Fed rate cuts on hold.
The Fed is not feeling pressure to cut rates.
With solid growth, sticky inflation and surging stocks, the Fed is in no hurry to cut rates.
Is the equity market rally inconsistent with Fed policy?
2 minute read
The Fed's dot plot held the intrigue at the FOMC meeting.
Biden left more questions than answers about his economic policies in his SOTU address.
Strong headline gains but weak data underneath.
Magnificent Seven continue to outperform.
Strong reports have swayed expectations for rate cuts rather than the Fed's constant blaring.
Strong wage growth keeps Fed cuts off the bases.
Dismal retail sales in January cap a weak holiday spending season.
Stocks strong start portends a volatile but positive year.
Strong headline gains but a mixed picture beneath the surface.
The Fed removed its tightening bias, opening the door to rate cuts.
Should keep the Fed on the sidelines in March.
Labor market and consumer spending firm, while inflation rises.
Zero for two out of the gate.
Strong job gains and rising wages keep Fed rate cuts on hold.
Three things to watch in 2024.
Inflation grinds lower, the Fed throws in the towel and holiday spending slows.
The Fed now projects rate cuts in 2024, just not as many as the markets have.
Fed rate cuts not coming anytime soon.
But investors aren't going to let you spoil this rally. Next year? We'll see.
As the economy slows across the board, the Fed is done hiking rates.
Market momentum & fundamentals are keeping the rally going.
The markets have swung too far by forecasting multiple Fed rate cuts in 2024.
12 minute read
Expecting market to broaden out as we advance to 5,000 on the S&P.
We believe next year could present compelling opportunities within high yield.
Thanksgiving brings increased travel, falling prices and rallying financial markets.
The economy and markets can't take on much more debt without getting sick.
Despite Biden’s terrible polling, Democrats performed well in off-year elections, which should worry the GOP.
Markets are serving up rallies for the holidays.
Reasons to believe the equity rally has legs.
Financial markets rally on perceived Fed pause.
With earnings and economic news not as bad as feared, markets can grind higher into year-end.
Weak jobs report pushes Fed to sidelines.
Will the stock and bond rallies have staying power?
The Fed wants more time and data as it looks to December's meeting.
Will it keep the Fed in play?
Geopolitics are trumping the economy and earnings among investor worries.
9 minute read
Though it is also very dark in the middle of the night.
Back-to-School sales were soft, but consumers are spending elsewhere.
A surprisingly strong economy could mean higher for longer, longer
Employment, inflation and bonds combine for twists and turns for the journey of Fed policy.
It's not just the pilot who is confused as markets wrestle with yields.
As markets stumble forward into earnings, winners and losers likely to emerge.
Disruptions minor so far amid a global outlook that's a bit meh.
Being defensive in credit may mean a little pain for a bigger potential gain.
But overall labor-market picture is mixed.
The bond market used to be dull...
Equity markets have popped this year—but not for everyone.
Yet another shift in the Fed's SEP has the markets again playing defense.
Rates may be resetting higher but that doesn't mean stocks must suffer.
Wage inflation could keep the Fed engaged.
Evidence suggests the move up in longer yields is nearing an end.
When global investors think Asia, they're increasingly thinking India.
Fed plans to keep interest rates higher for longer.
The Fed opts against raising rates, but doesn't rule out another hike this year.
At the end of the day, it'll be a gift for competitors.
With Growth a crowded and expensive trade, might Value offer better value?
School spending slows while inflation rises.
Moderating core inflation doesn't ease consumer concerns about everyday prices.
Maintaining cautiously optimistic stance as macro concerns fade.
Data point in different directions.
Lots of reasons to expect all-important spending to hold up.
But can the rise in workers' negotiating power since Covid 19 continue?
Unloved sectors may be setting up nicely.
Softer job growth could prevent the Fed from hiking again.
Fed Chair Powell addressed inflation targets and market expectations in Jackson Hole.
Contrarian approaches may offer a missing piece to investor portfolios.
Let's hope so because massive and growing deficits are spooking markets.
Powell uses Jackson Hole keynote to reiterate Fed’s vigilance to lower inflation.
They've stabilized somewhat but still face pressures.
The rapidly developing peninsular country has 3 factors going for it.
And has a lot of firepower left.
Buyable entry point emerging for stocks.
The evidence so far suggests not a lot.
The marriage of AI and quantum computers could take things to unimaginable levels.
Electric vehicles face bumps in the road to reach their lofty goals.
Rhetorically speaking, China may have long Covid.
For equity investors, peak pessimism presents potential opportunities.
Payroll growth slows, but wages stay hot.
Senior Portfolio Manager R.J. Gallo can think of seven reasons.
Its potential, for good and for bad, is just starting to be appreciated.
The new regulations for money funds don't change their value proposition.
Fed may remain vigilant.
Might this rally be due for some consolidation?
Might a summer storm lie ahead for investors?
MBS issued by U.S. housing agencies could have advantages for investors if the economy slows.
Could energy buck conventional wisdom?
If it is, bubbles can last a long time.
Weakening confidence should give Fed the slowdown it wanted.
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