7 minute read
The expected economic bounce from those soccer balls has been surprisingly low.
4 minute read
With Chair Warsh minimizing direct Fed communication, we must look broader to discern policy.
2 minute read
Weekly Cash Commentary
6 minute read
Combination of fundamentals and seasonal volatility could spark a storm for stocks.
Looks like new Chair Warsh might be 'independent' after all.
The Strait of Hormuz standoff continues.
Is a Fed rate hike on the horizon?
What to expect from the Fed and markets in 2026.
1 minute read
3 minute read
Hard for the new leader to distance himself from the White House when the swearing-in happened there.
US equities looking through the uncertainty of Iran war.
The Kevin Warsh Fed is greeted with a dual-mandate dilemma.
5 minute read
Strong wealth effect and tax refunds offset rising gas prices.
Spiking high oil prices create regional winners and losers.
April payrolls surprise to the upside.
Powell will no longer speak from the podium, but by remaining on the Fed board, his voice remains.
Powell’s last FOMC meeting may be next week.
8 minute read
Recent equity market rally is one for the record books.
Global bond markets reflect a change in expectations for the macro environment.
Will the relief rally — and fragile Iran ceasefire — hold?
But will the Iran conflict weigh on employment in the coming weeks?
Assets sent to the money markets due to the Iran conflict might stay for the yields.
Oil prices prompt a drastic shift in expectations for global central bank policy.
Much depends on how long the Strait of Hormuz is blocked during the Iran conflict.
Will its next policy move be another pause, a cut or a hike? It depends.
If the Iran war does not derail it, the US economy should remain strong.
Rise in oil prices might goose inflation just as the US labor market appears to be weakening.
10 minute read
US bond markets are relatively stable in the face of potential disruption.
US labor market was strong across the board in January.
Equity rally broadens out amid positive January Barometer.
From a subpoena to a nomination, the Fed dominated the financial headlines.
Policy fog now begins to lift after this week's rate-cut pause.
With attractive yields and solid credit, demand for corporate bonds continues to be strong.
We think GDP growth could reach 3.3% in 2026.
If the future keeps bond investors awake at night, the present is complicated too.
But midterm elections and Fed leadership transition could spark volatility.
Sue Hill provides her insight after the anticipated December FOMC meeting, along with what is expected from the Fed in 2026.
The Fed did not issue a 50 basis-point rate cut like last year but clearly has resumed its easing cycle.
Trump’s pressure on the Fed notwithstanding, the money markets have much to celebrate.
There are no short cuts when it comes to excellence in service.
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