Insights

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Markets/Economy
March 1 2024
Liquidity .
Article

4 minute read

Markets heed data, not Fed Speak
March 1 2024

Strong reports have swayed expectations for rate cuts rather than the Fed's constant blaring.

February 23 2024
Markets/Economy .
Article

6 minute read

'Economy of Dreams'
February 23 2024

Strong wage growth keeps Fed cuts off the bases.

February 16 2024
Markets/Economy .
Article

4 minute read

Ice cold
February 16 2024

Dismal retail sales in January cap a weak holiday spending season.

February 13 2024
Equity .
Article

5 minute read

January Barometer positive
February 7 2024

Stocks strong start portends a volatile but positive year.

February 2 2024
Markets/Economy .
Article

7 minute read

Groundhog Day for labor market
February 2 2024

Strong headline gains but a mixed picture beneath the surface.

February 22 2024
Markets/Economy .
Article

4 minute read

Sun setting on the tightening cycle
February 1 2024

The Fed removed its tightening bias, opening the door to rate cuts.

January 26 2024
Markets/Economy .
Article

6 minute read

Solid fourth quarter GDP
January 26 2024

Should keep the Fed on the sidelines in March.

January 19 2024
Markets/Economy .
Article

7 minute read

Sharp disparity between the Fed and markets
January 19 2024

Labor market and consumer spending firm, while inflation rises.

February 13 2024
Markets/Economy .
Article

6 minute read

Stock market seasonals flashing caution
January 12 2024

Zero for two out of the gate.

January 4 2024
Markets/Economy .
Article

6 minute read

Labor market still raking
January 5 2024

Strong job gains and rising wages keep Fed rate cuts on hold.

January 2 2024
2024 Outlook .
Article

3 minute read

A year of intrigue
January 2 2024

Three things to watch in 2024.

December 21 2023
2024 Outlook .
Article

3 minute read

Will stocks and elections correlate again?
December 21 2023

Three things to watch in 2024.

December 14 2023
Markets/Economy .
Article

7 minute read

Early presents
December 15 2023

Inflation grinds lower, the Fed throws in the towel and holiday spending slows.

December 11 2023
2024 Outlook .
Article

4 minute read

If we have a recession, it'll likely be a 'rich' one
December 12 2023

Three things to watch in 2024.

December 8 2023
Markets/Economy .
Article

6 minute read

Rebound in household jobs
December 8 2023

Fed rate cuts not coming anytime soon.

December 8 2023
Equity .
Article

6 minute read

You're a mean one, Mr. Grinch!
December 8 2023

But investors aren't going to let you spoil this rally. Next year? We'll see.

December 1 2023
Markets/Economy .
Article

7 minute read

Stick a fork in it
December 1 2023

As the economy slows across the board, the Fed is done hiking rates.

December 1 2023
Equity .
Article

7 minute read

Is that Santa I see?
December 1 2023

Market momentum & fundamentals are keeping the rally going.

December 1 2023
Liquidity .
Article

4 minute read

Cutting through the noise
December 1 2023

The markets have swung too far by forecasting multiple Fed rate cuts in 2024.

January 5 2024
2024 Outlook .
Article

12 minute read

2024 Outlook: Less rocky, more boring
November 30 2023

Expecting market to broaden out as we advance to 5,000 on the S&P.

November 21 2023
Fixed Income .
Article

3 minute read

Don't call it a comeback...yet
November 21 2023

We believe next year could present compelling opportunities within high yield.

November 21 2023
Markets/Economy .
Article

5 minute read

Holiday cheer
November 21 2023

Thanksgiving brings increased travel, falling prices and rallying financial markets.

November 20 2023
Equity .
Article

7 minute read

The turkey's not the only thing getting stuffed…
November 20 2023

The economy and markets can't take on much more debt without getting sick. 

November 17 2023
Politics .
Article

5 minute read

Shot across the bow?
November 17 2023

Despite Biden’s terrible polling, Democrats performed well in off-year elections, which should worry the GOP.

November 17 2023
Equity .
Article

7 minute read

M'm, M'm
November 17 2023

Markets are serving up rallies for the holidays.

November 10 2023
Equity .
Article

7 minute read

Just in time for the holidays
November 10 2023

Reasons to believe the equity rally has legs.

November 6 2023
Markets/Economy .
Article

5 minute read

Out of the woods?
November 7 2023

Financial markets rally on perceived Fed pause.

November 30 2023
Equity .
Article

5 minute read

Back to the grind
November 7 2023

With earnings and economic news not as bad as feared, markets can grind higher into year-end.

November 3 2023
Equity .
Article

7 minute read

Labor market tide starting to turn
November 3 2023

Weak jobs report pushes Fed to sidelines.             

November 3 2023
Equity .
Article

8 minute read

You made my day
November 3 2023

Will the stock and bond rallies have staying power?

November 1 2023
Liquidity .
Article

3 minute read

Wait and see
November 1 2023

The Fed wants more time and data as it looks to December's meeting.

October 27 2023
Markets/Economy .
Article

6 minute read

Blowout third quarter GDP
October 27 2023

Will it keep the Fed in play?

October 27 2023
Equity .
Article

8 minute read

The origin of the word 'politics'
October 27 2023

Geopolitics are trumping the economy and earnings among investor worries.

November 7 2023
Equity .
Article

9 minute read

'It's always darkest before the dawn'
October 26 2023

Though it is also very dark in the middle of the night.

October 20 2023
Markets/Economy .
Article

6 minute read

Sales surprisingly surge
October 20 2023

Back-to-School sales were soft, but consumers are spending elsewhere.

October 25 2023
Equity .
Article

8 minute read

The remarkable consumer
October 20 2023

A surprisingly strong economy could mean higher for longer, longer

October 13 2023
Markets/Economy .
Article

8 minute read

The long and winding road
October 13 2023

Employment, inflation and bonds combine for twists and turns for the journey of Fed policy.

October 13 2023
Equity .
Article

8 minute read

'Welcome to Pittsburgh, Ohio ...'
October 13 2023

It's not just the pilot who is confused as markets wrestle with yields.

October 12 2023
Equity .
Article

8 minute read

Separating the wheat from the chaff
October 11 2023

As markets stumble forward into earnings, winners and losers likely to emerge.

October 11 2023
International/Global .
Article

4 minute read

The Israeli conflict isn’t a global factor ... yet
October 11 2023

Disruptions minor so far amid a global outlook that's a bit meh.

October 26 2023
Fixed Income .
Article

5 minute read

Better early than late
October 10 2023

Being defensive in credit may mean a little pain for a bigger potential gain. 

October 31 2023
Markets/Economy .
Article

7 minute read

Shocking jobs report
October 6 2023

But overall labor-market picture is mixed.

October 6 2023
Equity .
Article

7 minute read

Like a cross between 'Deliverance' and 'The Shining'
October 6 2023

The bond market used to be dull...

October 3 2023
Equity .
Article

4 minute read

Is it too late to play catch-up?
October 4 2023

Equity markets have popped this year—but not for everyone.

September 28 2023
Monetary Policy .
Article

3 minute read

Changing the game plan
October 2 2023

Yet another shift in the Fed's SEP has the markets again playing defense. 

October 2 2023
Equity .
Article

8 minute read

History lessons
September 29 2023

Rates may be resetting higher but that doesn't mean stocks must suffer.

September 29 2023
Markets/Economy .
Article

6 minute read

Labor day, week, month and year
September 29 2023

Wage inflation could keep the Fed engaged.

September 28 2023
Fixed Income .
Article

3 minute read

This pain should pass
September 29 2023

Evidence suggests the move up in longer yields is nearing an end.

September 25 2023
Monetary Policy .
Article

6 minute read

Goldilocks and the Federal Reserve
September 22 2023

Fed plans to keep interest rates higher for longer.

September 20 2023
Markets/Economy .
Article

2 minute read

About that auto strike
September 20 2023

At the end of the day, it'll be a gift for competitors.

September 15 2023
Markets/Economy .
Article

6 minute read

Back to school
September 15 2023

School spending slows while inflation rises.

September 19 2023
Equity .
Article

8 minute read

A simple bag of potato chips
September 15 2023

Moderating core inflation doesn't ease consumer concerns about everyday prices.

October 10 2023
Equity .
Article

6 minute read

Settling into a world of single-digit returns


September 14 2023

Maintaining cautiously optimistic stance as macro concerns fade.

September 8 2023
Markets/Economy .
Article

8 minute read

Future still foggy
September 8 2023

Data point in different directions.

September 8 2023
Equity .
Article

7 minute read

I wouldn't want to count the consumer out prematurely
September 8 2023

Lots of reasons to expect all-important spending to hold up.

September 14 2023
Markets/Economy .
Article

4 minute read

Power to the people!
September 7 2023

But can the rise in workers' negotiating power since Covid 19 continue?

September 1 2023
Equity .
Article

7 minute read

What's the downside?
September 1 2023

Unloved sectors may be setting up nicely.

August 31 2023
Markets/Economy .
Article

4 minute read

Bad news is good news
September 1 2023

Softer job growth could prevent the Fed from hiking again.

September 1 2023
Monetary Policy .
Article

4 minute read

Pushback
September 1 2023

Fed Chair Powell addressed inflation targets and market expectations in Jackson Hole.  

August 31 2023
Equity .
Article

8 minute read

Will AI, millennials and productivity save the day?
August 25 2023

Let's hope so because massive and growing deficits are spooking markets.

August 25 2023
Monetary Policy .
Article

5 minute read

Higher for longer
August 25 2023

Powell uses Jackson Hole keynote to reiterate Fed’s vigilance to lower inflation.

August 24 2023
Fixed Income .
Article

2 minute read

Banks aren't totally out of the woods yet
August 24 2023

They've stabilized somewhat but still face pressures.

August 21 2023
Equity .
Article

8 minute read

The consumer reigns supreme ...
August 18 2023

And has a lot of firepower left.

September 7 2023
Equity .
Article

9 minute read

Every cloud has a silver lining
August 17 2023

Buyable entry point emerging for stocks.

August 11 2023
Equity .
Article

4 minute read

How much do 'long and variable lags' matter?
August 14 2023

The evidence so far suggests not a lot. 

August 9 2023
Markets/Economy .
Article

6 minute read

AI revolution: Artificial superintelligence is scary
August 10 2023

The marriage of AI and quantum computers could take things to unimaginable levels.

August 9 2023
Equity .
Article

4 minute read

EVs are not an environmental panacea
August 9 2023

Electric vehicles face bumps in the road to reach their lofty goals.

August 8 2023
International/Global .
Article

3 minute read

The case against China
August 8 2023

Rhetorically speaking, China may have long Covid.

August 8 2023
International/Global .
Article

4 minute read

The case for China
August 8 2023

For equity investors, peak pessimism presents potential opportunities.

August 29 2023
Markets/Economy .
Article

6 minute read

Labor market stagflation?
August 4 2023

Payroll growth slows, but wages stay hot.        

August 3 2023
Fixed Income .
Article

3 minute read

Why the climb in long yields isn't likely to last
August 3 2023

Senior Portfolio Manager R.J. Gallo can think of seven reasons.

August 29 2023
Markets/Economy .
Article

7 minute read

AI revolution: Artificial general intelligence is exciting
August 3 2023

Its potential, for good and for bad, is just starting to be appreciated.  

July 28 2023
Markets/Economy .
Article

6 minute read

Robust capex drives solid GDP
July 28 2023

Fed may remain vigilant.

July 28 2023
Equity .
Article

8 minute read

Nobody wears heels in Warren PA!
July 28 2023

Might this rally be due for some consolidation?

July 26 2023
Monetary Policy .
Article

2 minute read

Middle ground
July 26 2023

With the impact of its tightening still not apparent, the Fed opted for another modest rate hike. 

August 17 2023
Equity .
Article

7 minute read

'Rocky landing' landing
July 25 2023

Upgrading year-end S&P target to 5,000 as rocky landing scenario nears end.

July 21 2023
Equity .
Article

7 minute read

Conflicting signals
July 21 2023

Recession odds have fallen.

July 26 2023
Equity .
Article

7 minute read

Summertime...
July 21 2023

Might a summer storm lie ahead for investors? 

July 21 2023
Markets/Economy .
Article

3 minute read

Don't forget Mac and Mae
July 17 2023

MBS issued by U.S. housing agencies could have advantages for investors if the economy slows.

July 17 2023
Markets/Economy .
Article

6 minute read

Social Security: A crisis of procrastination
July 14 2023

Waiting for the program to go bust isn’t an option.

July 14 2023
Equity .
Article

7 minute read

Candyland
July 14 2023

It’s Christmas in July for equities. Will the Fed be a Scrooge?

July 7 2023
Markets/Economy .
Article

4 minute read

Payroll picture mixed
July 7 2023

But strong enough for the Fed to hike yet again.

July 12 2023
Equity .
Article

7 minute read

Looking back, looking ahead
July 7 2023

The first half was a consensus killer; will the second half be one too?

July 3 2023
Monetary Policy .
Article

3 minute read

Falling in line
July 3 2023

The markets have finally listened to hawkish Fed speak.

June 30 2023
Markets/Economy .
Article

6 minute read

Reversion to the mean?
June 30 2023

Will tech stocks cool after torrid first-half surge?

June 30 2023
Fixed Income .
Article

6 minute read

'You don't have to tell me 15 times'
June 30 2023

Don’t fight the Fed. Don’t fight the tape either.

July 11 2023
Equity .
Article

8 minute read

10 reasons the market's glass could be half full, not half empty
June 28 2023

As ‘Rocky Landing’ enters final phases, equity market remains upwardly biased.

June 28 2023
Markets/Economy .
Article

5 minute read

Devil's advocate
June 23 2023

Could energy buck conventional wisdom?

June 16 2023
Equity .
Article

5 minute read

1.3 trillion reasons to spend
June 21 2023

The consumer has a lot more firepower than many appreciate.

June 16 2023
Markets/Economy .
Article

5 minute read

Hawkish pause
June 16 2023

Dichotomy between nominal and core inflation declines keeps Fed engaged.

June 28 2023
Equity .
Article

9 minute read

Is it a bubble?
June 16 2023

If it is, bubbles can last a long time.

June 14 2023
Markets/Economy .
Article

2 minute read

Preparing for the next step
June 14 2023

The Fed skipped a rate hike but suggested more could come. 

June 28 2023
Markets/Economy .
Article

6 minute read

'High wall with a big gate'
June 12 2023

The current U.S. immigration system is an inadequate solution to population decline.

June 9 2023
Equity .
Article

7 minute read

Siren song?
June 9 2023

The pain trade is up. The late '90s' parallels are eerie.

June 2 2023
Markets/Economy .
Article

7 minute read

Tale of two labor markets
June 2 2023

A hot headline increase of 339,000 jobs in May but colder details put Fed in wait-and-see mode.

June 2 2023
Equity .
Article

8 minute read

99th percentile
June 2 2023

A very narrow market trading at extremes makes for discomfort.

June 14 2023
Markets/Economy .
Article

3 minute read

The coming deluge
June 1 2023

Following the official suspension of the federal debt limit, expect the U.S. Treasury to issue a massive amount of securities.

May 30 2023
Equity .
Article

8 minute read

Funemployment and sacrifice
May 26 2023

A strong consumer and robust labor market aren't so fun for the Fed.

May 23 2023
Markets/Economy .
Article

6 minute read

On the one hand...
May 23 2023

Inconsistent economic reports cloud the path of U.S. growth.

July 5 2023
Equity .
Article

7 minute read

'The World According to GARP'
May 19 2023

Might stocks offering 'growth at reasonable prices' provide refuge?

June 13 2023
Fixed Income .
Article

2 minute read

Bonds are (still) back
May 18 2023

And the case for bond returns is getting stronger.

May 25 2023
Equity .
Article

8 minute read

Please Sir! Can we just get on with the ‘Big R’ Recession?


May 16 2023

Investors grow impatient waiting for the big downturn that may never fully come.

May 12 2023
Markets/Economy .
Article

6 minute read

The pause that refreshes
May 12 2023

The Fed may be done hiking, but its subsequent pause could last awhile.

May 12 2023
Equity .
Article

8 minute read

The key is to figure out what regime we're in
May 12 2023

That could determine if above- or below-average historical returns are likely.

May 5 2023
Markets/Economy .
Article

7 minute read

'Sizzling' labor market report less impressive than it seems
May 5 2023

Barring the emergence of more bullish data, we expect the Fed to pause rate hikes this year.

May 4 2023
Equity .
Article

6 minute read

'Not worried, but ...'
May 4 2023

Looming risks make it hard to assess where markets go next.

May 3 2023
Monetary Policy .
Article

2 minute read

Could the latest be the last?
May 3 2023

The Fed raised rates again, but hinted it soon might be time to take a breather.

July 5 2023
Markets/Economy .
Article

4 minute read

Capital inflows
May 1 2023

What's behind the substantial rise in assets of money market vehicles?

April 28 2023
Markets/Economy .
Article

6 minute read

Worst of all worlds
April 28 2023

GDP growth slows, but inflation remains elevated

May 16 2023
Markets/Economy .
Article

5 minute read

Bulls running out of air; bears running out of time
April 28 2023

With volatile markets ahead, stocks enter a period of limbo.

May 10 2023
Equity .
Article

8 minute read

Crosscurrents
April 28 2023

With so many mixed messages, no wonder investors are confused.

April 28 2023
Markets/Economy .
Podcast

43 minute listen

Putting the inflation genie into its lamp


April 26 2023

Stubborn inflation, strong consumption data and a robust labor market are clouding the economy’s path.

April 28 2023
Markets/Economy .
Article

4 minute read

Debt-ceiling drama
April 21 2023

Is the debate much ado about nothing or a slow-moving train wreck?

July 5 2023
Equity .
Article

8 minute read

Slowflation
April 21 2023

Slower growth and stubborn inflation argue for patience and selectivity.

April 28 2023
Markets/Economy .
Article

7 minute read

High-water mark
April 14 2023

We see GDP growth slowing over the balance of 2023.

April 28 2023
Equity .
Article

7 minute read

Liquidity is shrinking
April 14 2023

Perils lurk but so does the potential for upside surprises.

May 30 2023
Fixed Income .
Article

5 minute read

Picking our spots
April 14 2023

Volatile markets can offer opportunities.

April 28 2023
Markets/Economy .
Article

7 minute read

Inflection point?
April 7 2023

Fed rate hikes finally may be starting to bite.

April 28 2023
Equity .
Article

8 minute read

'That's stupid and I'm not doing that ...'
April 6 2023

Mounting clues that the economy has reached a turning point.

July 5 2023
Equity .
Article

7 minute read

The beginning of the end, or the end of the beginning?
April 6 2023

Maintaining cautiously constructive stance amid confusing outlook.

April 28 2023
Liquidity .
Article

3 minute read

One Fed, two jobs
April 3 2023

The Federal Reserve’s dual function as regulator and policy-setter has been on display.

April 28 2023
Markets/Economy .
Article

5 minute read

Do fundamentals still matter?
March 31 2023

Should investors buy the dips or sell the rips as we approach earnings season?

July 5 2023
Markets/Economy .
Article

7 minute read

'How long can this keep going on?'
March 31 2023

For as long as the economy is stronger for longer.

April 28 2023
Equity .
Article

6 minute read

A rock and a hard place
March 24 2023

Will the Federal Reserve pivot from its fight against inflation?

May 30 2023
Equity .
Article

7 minute read

'We stay in our lane'
March 24 2023

Not all regional banks are caught up in the turmoil. 

April 28 2023
Monetary Policy .
Article

3 minute read

Balancing act
March 22 2023

Fed Chair Powell made the case for another quarter-point hike amid the banking turmoil.

April 28 2023
Markets/Economy .
Article

6 minute read

Is real estate the frog in the pot?
March 21 2023

Simmering post-pandemic issues are raising the temperature.

April 28 2023
Equity .
Article

8 minute read

Only when the tide goes out ...
March 20 2023

Rapid rate increases exposing issues that were hidden when rates were low.

April 28 2023
Markets/Economy .
Article

6 minute read

Reversal of fortunes
March 17 2023

Silicon Valley Bank's 'Perfect Storm' unlikely to deter Fed.

April 28 2023
Fixed Income .
Article

3 minute read

This is not 2008!

March 15 2023

But banking issues brought to the fore this week are discomforting.

August 24 2023
Liquidity .
Article

6 minute read

Next steps
March 14 2023

The Fed’s response to the collapse of SVB puts pressure on the Treasury and the FOMC decision next week.

July 5 2023
Equity .
Article

6 minute read

It's back to the middle syllable of e-CON-omy
March 13 2023

Weakening confidence should give Fed the slowdown it wanted.

April 28 2023
Equity .
Article

7 minute read

Drumbeat
March 10 2023

The beats (hawkish Fed, strong jobs, surprise bank failure) keep coming.

April 28 2023
Markets/Economy .
Article

2 minute read

Robust jobs report puts air under wings of Fed hawks
March 10 2023

The still hot labor market all but ensures the Federal Reserve stays aggressive.

May 30 2023
Equity .
Article

12 minute read

10 things that are 'different this time'
March 10 2023

Standard models and frameworks are less useful in rocky landings.

April 28 2023
Equity .
Article

7 minute read

Mr. and Mrs. Federated Hermes
March 3 2023

As Linda discusses inflationary '70s, a guest wonders if the Mister is with her.

April 28 2023
Markets/Economy .
Article

7 minute read

Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Market
March 3 2023

U.S. equity and fixed-income markets are pointing in different directions.