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Monetary Policy
June 2 2023
Markets/Economy .
Article

7 minute read

Tale of two labor markets
June 2 2023

A hot headline increase of 339,000 jobs in May but colder details put Fed in wait-and-see mode.

June 1 2023
Markets/Economy .
Article

3 minute read

The coming deluge
June 1 2023

Following the official suspension of the federal debt limit, expect the U.S. Treasury to issue a massive amount of securities.

May 25 2023
Fixed Income .
Article

2 minute read

Bonds are (still) back
May 18 2023

And the case for bond returns is getting stronger.

May 4 2023
Equity .
Article

6 minute read

'Not worried, but ...'
May 4 2023

Looming risks make it hard to assess where markets go next.

May 3 2023
Monetary Policy .
Article

2 minute read

Could the latest be the last?
May 3 2023

The Fed raised rates again, but hinted it soon might be time to take a breather.

May 4 2023
Markets/Economy .
Article

4 minute read

Capital inflows
May 1 2023

What's behind the substantial rise in assets of money market vehicles?

May 16 2023
Markets/Economy .
Article

5 minute read

Bulls running out of air; bears running out of time
April 28 2023

With volatile markets ahead, stocks enter a period of limbo.

April 28 2023
Markets/Economy .
Podcast

43 minute listen

Putting the inflation genie into its lamp


April 26 2023

Stubborn inflation, strong consumption data and a robust labor market are clouding the economy’s path.

April 28 2023
Markets/Economy .
Article

7 minute read

Inflection point?
April 7 2023

Fed rate hikes finally may be starting to bite.

April 28 2023
Liquidity .
Article

3 minute read

One Fed, two jobs
April 3 2023

The Federal Reserve’s dual function as regulator and policy-setter has been on display.

April 28 2023
Equity .
Article

6 minute read

A rock and a hard place
March 24 2023

Will the Federal Reserve pivot from its fight against inflation?

May 30 2023
Equity .
Article

7 minute read

'We stay in our lane'
March 24 2023

Not all regional banks are caught up in the turmoil. 

April 28 2023
Monetary Policy .
Article

3 minute read

Balancing act
March 22 2023

Fed Chair Powell made the case for another quarter-point hike amid the banking turmoil.

April 28 2023
Markets/Economy .
Article

6 minute read

Is real estate the frog in the pot?
March 21 2023

Simmering post-pandemic issues are raising the temperature.

April 28 2023
Liquidity .
Article

6 minute read

Next steps
March 14 2023

The Fed’s response to the collapse of SVB puts pressure on the Treasury and the FOMC decision next week.

April 28 2023
Markets/Economy .
Article

2 minute read

Robust jobs report puts air under wings of Fed hawks
March 10 2023

The still hot labor market all but ensures the Federal Reserve stays aggressive.

April 28 2023
Markets/Economy .
Article

7 minute read

Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Market
March 3 2023

U.S. equity and fixed-income markets are pointing in different directions.

April 28 2023
Liquidity .
Article

4 minute read

Coming to terms
March 1 2023

Investors have begrudgingly capitulated to a still-hawkish Fed.

April 28 2023
International/Global .
Article

5 minute read

More of the same
February 24 2023

The global economic picture is setting up to look a lot like last year's.

April 28 2023
Equity .
Article

7 minute read

They called 'peak inflation' 3 times in the '70s. Just saying.
February 17 2023

Inflation, consumer strength move bonds closer to the Fed. Stocks still keeping some distance.

April 28 2023
Fixed Income .
Article

3 minute read

It's an 'on the one hand, on the other' economy
February 8 2023

And that's creating challenges for fixed-income positioning.

April 28 2023
Equity .
Article

5 minute read

'Goldilocks' is a bit generous
February 7 2023

We're probably not yet at a "just right" stage for stocks, especially of the growth variety.

April 28 2023
Fixed Income .
Article

3 minute read

Be on the lookout
January 26 2023

An improved high-yield asset class might not flash the same signs for reentry as in past economic downturns.

January 17 2023
Markets/Economy .
Article Best case scenario
January 17 2023

Inflation cooling but labor market remains healthy.

April 28 2023
Markets/Economy .
Article

5 minute read

Stock market seasonals flashing green
January 11 2023

Two market indicators suggest equities could enjoy a better year. 

January 17 2023
2023 Outlook .
Article Potholes remain, but bonds headed in right direction
January 5 2023

Three things to watch in 2023.

January 11 2023
2023 Outlook .
Article Sweet spot
December 29 2022

Three things to watch in 2023.

December 22 2022
2023 Outlook .
Article A gloomy winter
December 29 2022

Three things to watch in 2023.

December 15 2022
Monetary Policy .
Article Disconnect
December 14 2022

The Fed pushes back against market expectations.

April 28 2023
Markets/Economy .
Podcast

45 minute listen

Is recession around the corner?
December 7 2022

Silvia Dall’Angelo, Donald Ellenberger and Steve Chiavarone discuss global inflation and whether the markets have already priced in a recession. 

December 8 2022
Monetary Policy .
Article Fed is getting what it wants for the holidays
December 6 2022

The U.S. economy is slowing across the board.

December 2 2022
Equity .
Article If you think that's Jerome playing Santa Claus ...
December 2 2022

You have to ask: is he here to hurt or help?

November 30 2022
Monetary Policy .
Article Just the facts
December 1 2022

FOMC voters must stick to the data to make their next decision on rates.

November 29 2022
Markets/Economy .
Article Resist the temptation
November 17 2022

Wide corporate bond spreads are enticing, but the time to add to credit sectors hasn't come yet.

November 7 2022
Markets/Economy .
Article October jobs report a mixed bag
November 7 2022

Solid week of employment data keeps Fed aggressive.

November 1 2022
Monetary Policy .
Article Not so fast
November 2 2022

Fed Chair Powell indicates the pace of hikes is not as crucial as arriving at the right place.

November 8 2022
Monetary Policy .
Article The good old days
October 31 2022

Money market yields have returned to pre-GFC levels.

October 21 2022
Markets/Economy .
Article Bird of prey
October 21 2022

Hawkish Fed prompts us to lower our GDP growth estimates.

October 24 2022
Monetary Policy .
Article D.I.Y.
October 3 2022

Fed projections are less useful these days.

September 2 2022
Markets/Economy .
Article Mixed picture for August employment
September 2 2022

Relatively healthy jobs report keeps Fed hiking rates.

October 3 2022
Liquidity .
Article The place to be
September 1 2022

 Cash has become a compelling asset class.

August 26 2022
Monetary Policy .
Article Hawkish Powell roils markets
August 26 2022

Fed Chair uses Jackson Hole keynote to reset investor expectations. 

August 19 2022
Equity .
Article Chill in 'Emerald City'
August 19 2022

Bears and bulls facing off on what the Fed may do.

August 16 2022
Equity .
Article You've got to ask yourself one question
August 12 2022

A lot is riding on a Fed pivot.

September 1 2022
Liquidity .
Article See you in September
August 1 2022

Next month will mark a half-year of hikes, time enough to evaluate their impact.

November 8 2022
Markets/Economy .
Article We're not in a recession...yet
July 29 2022

But high inflation and Fed tightening are taking us closer.

July 27 2022
Monetary Policy .
Article Another big swing
July 27 2022

The Fed raises interest rates by 0.75% for the second month in a row.

July 22 2022
Monetary Policy .
Article Hawkish Fed argues for keeping defense on the field
July 21 2022

Rising recession risk favors defensive dividend stocks, cash and Treasuries.

July 15 2022
Markets/Economy .
Article Sizzling
July 15 2022

Hot inflation, stagflation concerns, recession fears and a hawkish Fed.

July 8 2022
Equity .
Article Malaise
July 8 2022

Markets might be setting up for '70s' era modest returns.

July 1 2022
Liquidity .
Article Perpetual motion
July 1 2022

The Fed’s willingness to shift on volatile data makes rate expectations difficult.

June 23 2022
Inflation .
Article There will be pain
June 22 2022

Unfortunately for workers, wage inflation at heart of Fed tightening.

June 15 2022
Monetary Policy .
Article Since you offered
June 15 2022

The market’s late shift in expectations gave the Fed the opportunity for a 0.75% hike.

June 10 2022
Active Management .
Article Defense still rules in this market
June 10 2022

Fed should give investors no reason to stray from short-duration, value strategies.

December 17 2021
Equity .
Article There's a reason it's called the 'Wall of Worry'
November 22 2021

Market risks stay skewed to upside but inflation and possible policy errors lurk.