5 minute read
Voters have a widening choice.
2 minute read
Weekly Cash Commentary
7 minute read
Yen dynamics demonstrate global bond market interdependence.
As energy consumption of data centers surges, nuclear is poised for a comeback.
The poor combined results of May, June and July probably keep the Fed on the sidelines.
4 minute read
Why isn’t headline risk translating into market movements?
3 minute read
Chair Warsh and markets begin a complicated dance.
But the bond market is overreacting to the decision to hold rates steady.
US GDP growth cooled in Q2, but neither shoppers nor businesses were deterred by high oil prices.
6 minute read
But will the Iran conflict and the Fed take the wind out of their sails?
1 minute read
Employment confidence may be the silent driver of the current economy.
Revisiting the ‘Greenspan Commission’ for a possible solution.
A hawkish Fed and buoyant economy outweighed falling oil prices.
The expected economic bounce from those soccer balls has been surprisingly low.
With Chair Warsh minimizing direct Fed communication, we must look broader to discern policy.
Combination of fundamentals and seasonal volatility could spark a storm for stocks.
The case for short-duration credit has become increasingly compelling.
Looks like new Chair Warsh might be 'independent' after all.
The Kevin Warsh era already looks different.
The Strait of Hormuz standoff continues.
Is a Fed rate hike on the horizon?
Navigating higher yields, tight spreads, and a narrow opportunity set.
Hard for the new leader to distance himself from the White House when the swearing-in happened there.
US equities looking through the uncertainty of Iran war.
The Kevin Warsh Fed is greeted with a dual-mandate dilemma.
Strong wealth effect and tax refunds offset rising gas prices.
Spiking high oil prices create regional winners and losers.
April payrolls surprise to the upside.
It seems the long end of the curve is trying to tell us something.
Powerful revenue and earnings gains drive stocks to record highs.
Powell will no longer speak from the podium, but by remaining on the Fed board, his voice remains.
Yields are stubbornly higher as volatility moderates.
Powell’s last FOMC meeting may be next week.
8 minute read
Recent equity market rally is one for the record books.
Global bond markets reflect a change in expectations for the macro environment.
Will the relief rally — and fragile Iran ceasefire — hold?
Bond markets gave up gains during Q1 as inflation concerns outweighed risk-off instincts.
But will the Iran conflict weigh on employment in the coming weeks?
Assets sent to the money markets due to the Iran conflict might stay for the yields.
Oil prices prompt a drastic shift in expectations for global central bank policy.
Much depends on how long the Strait of Hormuz is blocked during the Iran conflict.
Will its next policy move be another pause, a cut or a hike? It depends.
Bond yields climb to cap a volatile week
A potential 'chair pro tempore' and the criminal probe dominated the Fed's policy-setting meeting.
If the Iran war does not derail it, the US economy should remain strong.
Rise in oil prices might goose inflation just as the US labor market appears to be weakening.
Inflation and private credit concerns offset accelerating US growth.
Yields have descended since the peak of 2023 but may settle at more competitive levels than before that spike.
10 minute read
US bond markets are relatively stable in the face of potential disruption.
US labor market was strong across the board in January.
Equity rally broadens out amid positive January Barometer.
Yield curve dynamics may be in flux once Warsh is in office.
From a subpoena to a nomination, the Fed dominated the financial headlines.
Policy fog now begins to lift after this week's rate-cut pause.
Federal Reserve Chair Powell stuck to the script at the FOMC meeting yesterday.
With attractive yields and solid credit, demand for corporate bonds continues to be strong.
We think GDP growth could reach 3.3% in 2026.
If the future keeps bond investors awake at night, the present is complicated too.
But midterm elections and Fed leadership transition could spark volatility.
The federal government shutdown is not the same as it reaching the debt limit.
The Fed did not issue a 50 basis-point rate cut like last year but clearly has resumed its easing cycle.
Trump’s pressure on the Fed notwithstanding, the money markets have much to celebrate.
3238431683